Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is having one of the best rushing seasons in NFL history. He had the 14th most rushing yards per game in NFL history with 125.3 and the 4th most this century, trailing only Adrian Peterson (131.1 in 2012), Derrick Henry (126.7 in 2020), and Chris Johnson (125.4 in 2009).

How can the Chiefs stop Saquon in the Super Bowl? In this analysis I’ll take a look at Barkley’s rushing patterns to see how the Chiefs should plan against him.

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Earlier this season I posted an analysis comparing Manning, Brady, Mahomes, and Rodgers in order to determine the best quarterback of the QBR era. In this post, I'll focus on a postseason comparison between Brady and Mahomes. Which quarterback has had a bigger impact on his team’s success when it matters most?

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1st down incompletion, 2nd and 10 upcoming— a clear passing situation, right? After all, only the league's elite ball carriers (just nine this season) can consistently gain 10 yards on the ground over two plays to avoid 4th down. So, what's the better strategy here? Two consecutive pass plays, each designed to pick up 10 yards, or a single pass play, aiming for 5-7 yards after a 2nd down run?

In this analysis, I’ll dive into NFL teams' run/pass decision-making on 2nd down and evaluate whether their play-calling aligns with game theory optimal strategies. Has the league cracked the code or if there’s room for improvement?

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As the NFL regular season approaches its final week of play, I will take a look at how NFL defenses have performed since 2018 in each of man and zone defense against passing plays. I will use two key metrics—EPA (Expected Points Added) and WPA (Win Probability Added)—to assess team effectiveness.

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Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) data exists dating back to 2006 and is largely considered a better measure of quarterback performance than passer rating because QBR accounts for expected points added (EPA) for all plays a quarterback participates in, including sacks and quarterback runs, rather than focusing solely on passing plays.

In this analysis, I will examine the QBRs of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes for each season since 2006. My goal is to identify the top quarterback of the QBR era by assessing how many times each player secured the QBR title and comparing their rolling-peak QBRs from single-season highs to 16-season averages.

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The NFL has approved a new set of kickoff rules for the 2024-25 season, with the goals of increasing the number of kick returns from the all-time low mark of 22% last season and reducing the velocity of player collisions on kickoffs. The XFL sported a 97% kick-return-rate last season under this kickoff format, so one of the game’s most exciting plays is likely to return to the forefront.

In this analysis I’ll discuss how the new kickoff rules will change kicking strategy, and determine which kickers are the best prepared to adjust to the new rules.

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The 2024 NFL Combine wrapped up this past weekend, showcasing some of the best athletes in the world eager to improve their NFL Draft prospects for the upcoming April event.

In this post, I will assess the standout performers at each position from the 2024 Combine, comparing them to athletes from the past three combines to identify those who truly stand out.

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Super Bowl LVIII is nine days away, featuring the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC number one seed San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs enter the game coming off a dominant Wild Card Round win over Miami, a close call in the Divisional Round against Buffalo, and a convincing performance in the AFC Championship Game against top seeded Baltimore. The 49ers roll into the big game after narrowly escaping the Packers in the Divisional Round and then just edging out the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.

In this analysis I’ll take a closer look at the recent performances of the Chiefs and 49ers to see which combinations of play type and location should be preferred and targeted by Patrick Mahomes and company.

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At the start of the season, I discussed how the “tush push” had enabled the Eagles to go for 4th and short situations 2.4x as frequently as the average NFL team. In this post, I’ll analyze how each team performed in short yardage situations and approximate how many wins the tush push was worth to the Eagles in 2023.

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Over the last 24 years, NFL kickers have notably enhanced their strength and accuracy. Justin Tucker's 66-yard field goal in 2021 established a new NFL record. But when will we see a 70-yard field goal?

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In “honor” of the Giants and Jets achieving a 20-year record with 24 punts in an NFL game in Week 8, I’ve analyzed the relationship between punt location and the opponent’s starting field position to determine whether there is an optimal location to punt from.

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With schedule imbalances early in the season, it can be difficult to determine the best team in the league purely by record.

538’s ELO system used to be a reliable source for NFL team comparisons, controlling for the difficulty of opponent. However, since 538 has stopped publishing sports rankings and predictions, I thought it would be a good time to run a two-year rolling ELO to rank all the NFL teams with 1000 as the starting point. Here’s how it turned out.

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The Philadelphia Eagles have been nothing short of remarkable in their last 25 games, boasting an impressive 21-4 record from the start of the last season, including three playoff encounters. The consistent Eagles’ offense averaged 28.1 points per game in the regular season last year and is averaging 28.2 points per game through five games in 2023.

So how can opposing defenses slow down the Eagles’ offense? In this analysis, I will break down the run/pass tendencies of the Eagles' offense, identify their situational strengths and weaknesses, and formulate a strategic approach to stifle their juggernaut attack.

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The NFL is a passing league. Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers have more protection than ever, Running Backs are having lengthy holdouts stemming from under-payment, and everybody loves to watch high scoring shootouts.

But why did the league’s run percentage just have the largest year-to-year increase since 2017, and the second largest year-to-year increase since 2003? Last year’s increase has catapulted the league’s run percentage to the highest level since 2010, leading me to wonder: Have we reached an inflection point in the NFL offensive strategy equilibrium?

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