Which Kickers Are Best Prepared for the NFL’s New Kickoff Rules?
Photo Credit: The Miami Herald
The NFL has approved a new set of kickoff rules for the 2024-25 season, with the goals of increasing the number of kick returns from the all-time low mark of 22% last season and reducing the velocity of player collisions on kickoffs. The XFL sported a 97% kick-return-rate last season under this kickoff format, so one of the game’s most exciting plays is likely to return to the forefront.
In this analysis I’ll discuss how the new kickoff rules will change kicking strategy, and determine which kickers are the best prepared to adjust to the new rules.
What Do The New Kickoff Rules Entail?
All the players on the kicking team, except the kicker, will line up at the return team’s 40 yard line; at least nine of the eleven players on the receiving team will line up between their 30 and 35 yard lines. This change is intended to reduce collision speed.
A kick that either has its first bounce in the endzone or bounces through the endzone, and results in a touchback, will result in a drive that starts at the 30 yard line. This type of touchback will result in a drive that starts five yards further up field than the old touchbacks, which resulted in drives that started at the 25 yard line.
A kick that has its first bounce between the endzone and the 20 yard line that does not bounce through the end zone, and results in a touchback, will result in a drive that starts from the 20 yard line - five yards further down field than previously.
If a kick bounces short of the 20 yard line, the drive will start at the 40 yard line.
Surprise onside kicks are no longer allowed.
A full summary of the rules can be found here.
How Do the New Rules Change Kicking Strategy?
NFL kickoffs averaged 23 yards per return last season. Consequently, NFL kickers were motivated to kick the ball into/through the opposing team's endzone, unless they could precisely land their kicks inside the 2-yard line. Since achieving such accuracy proved exceedingly challenging for most kickers, they often opted for simply kicking the ball through the endzone, rather than even attempting to kick the ball inside the 2-yard line.
We can expect NFL kick returns for the 2024-25 season to hover around an average of 21.3 yards, in line with the average return of the XFL last season. Consequently, in the upcoming season, a kickoff landing inside the 8-yard line will hold greater value than one bouncing in or through the endzone.
Who Will Benefit Under the New Rules?
I analyzed the 2,737 NFL kickoffs during the 2023-24 season that originated from the kicking team's 35-yard line and excluded onside kicks. I identified the kicks that would meet the criteria of effective kicks under the updated kickoff rules. Subsequently, I organized the kicks by kicker and compiled the rankings accordingly. Below are my findings.
Table 1: Effective Kick Rate (under the new kicking rules) of all NFL kickers with at least 50 kickoffs in 2023-24.
Anders Carlson of the Packers, Nick Folk of the Titans, Jake Moody of the 49ers, Tyler Bass of the Bills, and Jason Myers of the Seahawks are best prepared for the kickoff rules change, based on where they are able to locate their kickoffs.
Will Lutz of the Broncos, Ethan Evans of the Rams, Joey Slye of the Jaguars, Matt Prater of the Cardinals, and Brandon Aubrey of the Cowboys will have to make the most significant adjustments to their kickoff strategy under the new rules.
