Who Will Win the EPL Title - Liverpool, Arsenal, or City?

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The EPL title race saw a major shift this past weekend when Liverpool came back from 0-1 down to defeat Brighton 2-1, and Arsenal went into the Etihad and held Manchester City to a scoreless draw.

In this analysis, I’ll use the last two seasons of EPL matches to rank the three contenders, considering the strength of opponent, final score, and each team’s expected goals scored (xG) based on the shots that they took/allowed in each match. I will then predict the match outcomes of the final nine weeks of the season and determine how likely each team is to capture the Premier League title.

Table 1 lists the ratings of the three teams.

Table 1: Ratings of the top three EPL teams

City rates as the strongest squad, just a hair better than Arsenal, with Liverpool coming in at a relatively close third place.

Next up are the expected points for each remaining match, listed in Table 2 through Table 4.

City’s Schedule

Table 2: Manchester City’s projected match results

City is expected to grab 22.15 points in their final 9 matches, with a standard deviation of 2.89 points.

Arsenal’s Schedule

Table 3: Arsenal’s projected match results

Arsenal is expected to grab 21.31 points in their final 9 matches, with a standard deviation of 3.12 points.

Liverpool’s Schedule

Table 4: Liverpool’s projected match results

Liverpool is expected to grab 21.37 points in their final 9 matches, with a standard deviation of 3.09 points.

Who is Expected to Take Home the Trophy?

In terms of upcoming fixtures, Liverpool has the easiest schedule among the three teams, while Arsenal has the toughest schedule ahead. Each team’s toughest two remaining matches are against Tottenham and Aston Villa.

Finally, let’s simulate the final nine games of the season and determine the title odds. After 10,000 simulations, these are the results.

• Liverpool has a 54% chance to capture the title.

• Arsenal has a 25% chance to capture the title.

• City has a 21% chance to capture the title.

If multiple teams tie atop the table and goal difference (GD) comes into play as the tiebreaker, Arsenal has a leg up given its current 6 GD advantage over Liverpool and 11 GD advantage over City.

How Do the Simulation Results Relate to the Betting Market Offers?

The betting markets are offering the opportunity to buy Liverpool at 45.5%, to buy City at 34.5%, and to buy Arsenal at 28.6%. Based on my simulation, buying Liverpool appears to be the best value play.