Who is the Best Quarterback in the QBR era: Manning, Brady, Rodgers, or Mahomes?
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Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) data exists dating back to 2006 and is largely considered a better measure of quarterback performance than passer rating because QBR accounts for expected points added (EPA) for all plays a quarterback participates in, including sacks and quarterback runs, rather than focusing solely on passing plays.
In this analysis, I will examine the QBRs of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes for each season since 2006. My goal is to identify the top quarterback of the QBR era by assessing how many times each player secured the QBR title and comparing their rolling-peak QBRs from single-season highs to 16-season averages.
The QBRs for each of these four players, in addition to the league leader, for each season since 2006 are illustrated in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: QBR’s for each of Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, and the league leader for each season since 2006
From Figure 1, we can infer that elite quarterback play has declined since the peaks of Manning and Brady, with the league-leading QBR dropping by approximately 0.5 points per season since the start of the QBR era. Let’s take a look at the peak-to-peak comparisons of Manning, Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes, shown in Table 1 below.
Table 1: Peak-to-Peak comparison of Manning, Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes
Manning has the most QBR titles with 4, Rodgers is second with 3, and Mahomes and Brady are tied for third with 2 each.
The first obvious comparison to be made here is between Manning and Brady during the 9 seasons that they overlap with QBR data. Manning leads Brady in QBR titles, 2-Season Peak, 4-Season Peak, 5-Season Peak, 6-Season Peak, 7-Season Peak, and 8-Season Peak. Brady leads Manning in Best Season, 3-Season Peak, and 9-Season Peak. It was a close call, but when we look deeply it’s clear that Peyton Manning was a better quarterback than Tom Brady from 2006 to 2015.
The second comparison, one that we have 15 seasons of QBR data per player, is between Brady and Rodgers. The only thing that Rodgers has going for him here is that he has 3 QBR titles to Brady’s 2. That is more a product of Rodgers peaking in 2011 after Brady and Manning had started to decline, while Brady had to battle it out with Manning during their primes. Brady has Rodgers beat in every peak-to-peak comparison from Best Season to Best 15-Season Peak.
Our third comparison is Mahomes vs. Rodgers. Rodgers also has Mahomes beat in QBR titles, 3 to 2, in addition to Best Season. But since Mahomes is ahead of Rodgers in every other peak from 2 seasons to 7 seasons, we can safely say that Mahomes is on pace to have a better career than Rodgers.
Lastly, we have the debate that is becoming more popular each season: Brady vs. Mahomes. Currently, both quarterbacks are tied with two QBR titles each, yet Brady holds the edge in peak performance, outperforming Mahomes in every category from two to seven seasons. As of right now, it appears that the conclusion may mirror that of the Brady vs. Rodgers debate.
For Mahomes to surpass Brady in the eight-season peak comparison, he would need to achieve a QBR of 79 in 2024. This ambitious target would require Mahomes to post an impressive QBR of 91.6 over the final eight games of the season, marking one of the most remarkable stretches in quarterback history and potentially leading the Chiefs to the first 17-0 regular season in NFL history.
However, Mahomes faces challenges with a depleted receiving corps and an aging Travis Kelce. Over the past 1.5 seasons, he has experienced his statistically worst performance to date, averaging a respectable but not elite QBR of 65.9. To position Mahomes ahead of Brady in the future, the Chiefs will likely need to revamp their receiving corps and develop Xavier Worthy into the high-speed weapon he has the potential to be.
