
Paraball’s March Madness Bracket
The brackets are in and one of the most exciting weeks of sports is about to begin! This year’s March Madness tournament features top seeded UConn, looking to defend its title and become the eighth program to repeat as national champions—the first to do so since Florida in 2007. The bracket also features some potential Cinderella teams that have had tremendous seasons in weaker conferences. Who will come out on top?
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Who Are the Best Defensive Outfielders in the MLB?
When evaluating an outfielder’s ability to track and catch fly balls, two of the factors we look at most closely are the outfielder’s jump and the outfielder’s speed. Statcast breaks an outfielder’s jump down into three components: reaction for the first 1.5 seconds, burst for the next 1.5 seconds, and route efficiency for the first 3 seconds.
In this analysis I’ll determine which factors are the most important for an outfielder’s success, and use those factors to project the top defensive outfielders in 2024.
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Which Pitching Staff Has the Most Diverse Set of Release Points?
A pitching staff featuring a varied range of release points provides an additional way to unsettle an opposing lineup. In this analysis, I will measure the release point diversity of both right-handed and left-handed pitchers on each team from 2023, to pinpoint the teams that lead the way in this strategy and those that trail behind.
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When is it Best to Bunt?
There have been many analyses over the years about the best situations to bunt. Tom Tango’s The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball has a thorough analysis of when a team should sacrifice bunt, considering factors such as the on-base percentage of the on-deck hitter and the speed of the batter, as well as the score, game state, and run scoring environment.
In this post, I will take a look at the last two years of bunt attempts (4733 attempts, just under one bunt attempt per game) to assess which situations bunts have been most successful in improving an offense’s run scoring and improving an offense’s win probability. I’ll also assess the pitch characteristics of the pitches that bunts have been most and least successful against.
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NFL Combine 2024: How this Year’s Results Compare to the Results of the Last Three Years
The 2024 NFL Combine wrapped up this past weekend, showcasing some of the best athletes in the world eager to improve their NFL Draft prospects for the upcoming April event.
In this post, I will assess the standout performers at each position from the 2024 Combine, comparing them to athletes from the past three combines to identify those who truly stand out.
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Opinion: NBA Should Stop Counting Full Court Shots against a Player’s Field Goal Percentage
For my first Paraball Notes opinion, I argue why the NBA should stop counting full court shots against players' field goal percentages, analogous to how the MLB does not count sacrifice bunts or sacrifice flies against batters' batting averages.
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MLB’s Best Defenses, Most Athletic Defenses, and Most Intelligent Defenses
Modern defensive metrics vary significantly in their approach to evaluating fielders. In essence, Fangraphs’ dWAR, which I’ll refer to as fdWAR, is a measure of athleticism, whereas Baseball Reference’s dWAR (let’s call this bdWAR) is a measure of game impact, including a team’s positioning.
In this post I’ll take a look at how the 30 MLB teams ranked in each of bdWAR (overall defensive performance), fdWAR (athleticism), and the difference between bdWAR and fdWAR (positioning value) for the 2023 season.
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Measuring Aaron Judge’s True Offensive Value
What are some of the hidden ways in which a superstar hitter helps his team?
Photo Credit: AP Photo/LM Otero

Super Bowl Preview: The Chiefs’ Path to Putting Up Points
Super Bowl LVIII is nine days away, featuring the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC number one seed San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs enter the game coming off a dominant Wild Card Round win over Miami, a close call in the Divisional Round against Buffalo, and a convincing performance in the AFC Championship Game against top seeded Baltimore. The 49ers roll into the big game after narrowly escaping the Packers in the Divisional Round and then just edging out the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
In this analysis I’ll take a closer look at the recent performances of the Chiefs and 49ers to see which combinations of play type and location should be preferred and targeted by Patrick Mahomes and company.
Photo Credit: Abbie Parr/AP/Shutterstock

Quantifying Momentum in the NFL
Sunday’s NFC championship game between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers was a roller coaster ride. The Lions seized a 17 point lead by halftime, only to see the 49ers storm back and win the game 34-31. In the second half, the Lions turned the ball over on downs twice after going for 4th and 2 at the SF 28 yard line and 4th and 3 at the SF 30 yard line. Each of those failed plays appeared to energize the Santa Clara crowd and help propel the home team to the Super Bowl.
Watching the game had me thinking: can we quantify momentum in the NFL?
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How Has Sinner’s Game Improved So Quickly?
22-year-old Jannik Sinner won his first Grand Slam title on Sunday, defeating Daniil Medvedev in a thrilling 5-setter, coming back from down two sets to love. Sinner handily beat 24-time Grand Slam champion and world number one Novak Djokovic in four sets in the semi-finals. Last year, Sinner only made it to the fourth round in the Australia Open. What has Sinner done to improve?
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Introducing Pitching Stat LBAbip
BAbip, batting average on balls in play, serves as a valuable statistic for gauging pitchers' luck in the frequency of balls in play (excluding homeruns) that lead to base hits. Conventionally, a pitcher’s BAbip is compared to the league average BAbip when assessing how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been. In this analysis, I’ll introduce a more sophisticated point of comparison: location-based batting average on balls in play (LBAbip). I will use LBAbip to identify pitchers who are likely to regress to the mean in 2024.
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Free Agent Signings: Should You Sign Quickly or Hold Out for More?
Whether a free agent is looking for a shorter term deal with high average annual value (AAV) or a longer term deal with a larger overall guarantee, should he be looking to sign a deal in November or December, early in the offseason, or should he wait until January or February, as spring training approaches?
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Mariano Rivera: Is He the Greatest Pitcher of All Time?
Mariano Rivera, the only unanimous inductee to the Baseball Hall of Fame, is widely recognized as the greatest relief pitcher of all-time and solidly in the conversation for greatest pitcher overall. But how different from the rest was he really?
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Using Predictive wOBA To Predict 2024 Batting Performance
In a previous post, I proved via correlation that Predictive wOBA (including all batted balls, walks, strikeouts, and hit-by-pitches), is better at predicting Next Season wOBA than both wOBA and xwWOBA. I also showed how a mean-regression technique, resulting in Modified Predictive wOBA, strengthened the model’s predictive power even further.
In this post, I’ll use Modified Predictive wOBA to project performances in the coming baseball season and compare them to Steamer’s 2024 projections.
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How Many Wins Was the “Tush Push” Worth in 2023?
At the start of the season, I discussed how the “tush push” had enabled the Eagles to go for 4th and short situations 2.4x as frequently as the average NFL team. In this post, I’ll analyze how each team performed in short yardage situations and approximate how many wins the tush push was worth to the Eagles in 2023.
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Who Are The Most Prolific EPL and Big 5 Attackers in Recent Times?
Watching Liverpool winger Mohammad Salah this year has been very entertaining. In the first half of his seventh season with Liverpool— all under the guidance of manager Jurgen Klopp— the 31-year-old Salah is tied for the EPL lead in goals scored with 14 and tied for the lead in assists with 8. His consistently productive performance has me wondering: Where does he rank among the most prolific EPL attackers in recent times?
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How Can We Make Predictive wOBA Even More Predictive?
Last week, Tom Tango introduced the concept of Predictive wOBA, and through correlation analysis, he demonstrated that Predictive wOBA exhibits stronger predictive capabilities for Next Season wOBA than both wOBA and xwOBA. Is there a way to further improve Predictive wOBA?
In this post, I’ll examine the predictive power of a slightly different version of Predictive wOBA, incorporating walks, strikeouts, and hit-by-pitches, along with all batted balls.
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When Will We See a 70-yard Field Goal in the NFL?
Over the last 24 years, NFL kickers have notably enhanced their strength and accuracy. Justin Tucker's 66-yard field goal in 2021 established a new NFL record. But when will we see a 70-yard field goal?
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The Updated xwFIP
I received a very good comment from reader Light_Saberist on one of my latests posts, in which I compared the predictive powers of xwFIP and FIP.
In order to determine the xHR of a pitcher, xFIP (not to be confused with xwFIP) uses the league average homerun/flyball rate of 10.5% and multiplies that rate by the number of flyballs the pitcher allows. This logic may mitigate some of the luck factors in allowing homeruns and thus strengthen xwFIP as well. I checked that hypothesis, and it was correct!
Photo Credit: Daniel Varnado