Why the Cuban Missile Is Having a Career Year
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Aroldis Chapman is atop the 2025 xwFIP rankings through August. How is the 37-year-old Red Sox closer having so much success this year?
In this post, I’ll go over the top pitchers and top starters in baseball, and detail Chapman’s success and how batters should approach facing him.
Table 1 outlines the xwFIP leaderboard through August, with minimum 40 innings pitched.
Table 1: 2025 xwFIP leaders through August, min 40 innings pitched
As we can see, Chapman’s 2.44 xwFIP is followed by Astros closer Josh Hader, Padres setup man Adrian Morejon, Royals ace Cole Ragans, and Mets closer Edwin Diaz in the top 5.
Ragans, Griffin Jax, Devin Williams, and Jeff Hoffman have been the unluckiest pitchers in the top 30, each with an ERA at least 1.8 runs worse than his xwFIP.
Let’s take a look at the 30 top starters so far this season.
Table 2: 2025 xwFIP leaders among starting pitchers, minimum 40 innings pitched and 10 starts
Ragans is followed by Mariners ace Logan Gilbert, Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, Tigers ace and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, and Brewers rookie phenom Jacob Misiorowski in the top 5.
Now, back this post’s featured player—what is Chapman doing differently this year?
Table 3 below outlines the Statcast statistics for Aroldis Chapman. As we can see, Chapman has a career low 7.2% walk rate. That is less than half the of his walk rate for each of the past four seasons. And despite this much improved control, he’s still striking hitters out at a 39.2% clip, above his Statcast era mark of 38.6%.
Table 3: Baseball Savant statistics for Aroldis Chapman in the Statcast era
Let’s take a look at his pitch breakdown over his career.
Figure 1: Aroldis Chapman pitch breakdown over his career
Chapman is throwing far more sinkers and fewer sliders this season. His less predictable 4-seamer / sinker combination is keeping batters off balance and allowing him to attack the zone more consistently.
There’s one number that sticks out from the rest—Chapman is throwing first pitch strikes at an elite 70.1% rate. That is leaps and bounds ahead of the MLB average of 61.1% and Chapman’s career average of 59.1% first pitch strikes.
A once wild flamethrower is now attacking the zone early and often. Batters need to stop taking the first pitch with the hope of working a walk and need to start attacking Chapman early in counts.
