The Second Best Starter in Baseball is a Converted Reliever
Photo Credit: John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune
Garrett Crochet pitched 72 games and 73 innings as a reliever from 2020 to 2023, missing the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The White Sox, desperate for starting pitching, saw something they liked in Crochet and gave him a chance to start in 2024. Crochet has not disappointed, ranking 2nd among starting pitchers in xwFIP through June. If traded later this month, he can quickly retool Chicago’s farm system.
At the end of April, Crochet ranked 6th among starters with a 2.98 xwFIP, despite a 6.37 ERA and a 4.20 FIP. At the end of May, Crochet’s ranking was up to 3rd among all pitchers and 1st among starters with a 2.02 xwFIP, despite an ERA of 3.49 and a FIP of 3.00. Now, through June, Crochet is 2nd among starters and 6th among all pitchers with a 2.71 xwFIP, and his ERA and FIP have dropped to 3.02 and 2.47, respectively.
The enhanced sample size of xwFIP, which considers every batted ball in a fielding independent manner, allows us to perceive significance in pitcher performance with a much smaller sample of innings pitched. ERA and FIP eventually catch up in significance as the samples grow.
Table 1 shows the xwFIP Leaderboard through June 2024, with all pitchers listed having at least 30 innings pitched (IP).
Table 1: xwFIP Leaderboard through June 2024, with all pitchers having pitched at least 30 innings (IP)
For the third straight month, Mason Miller tops the xwFIP leaderboard - with trade rumors swirling around the young right-handed closer. Astros closer Josh Hader (ranked 9th after May and unranked after April) has leapt to the 2nd spot in the leaderboard. Rangers reliever David Robertson, Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow, and Crochet round out the top five. Pirates phenom Paul Skenes ranks 9th among all pitchers with a 2.87 xwFIP.
Enyel de los Santos, Erik Miller, and Adam Ottavino all make the top 30 despite having less than stellar ERAs and FIPs, indicating that they could also follow Crochet’s path and have successful second halves.
Table 2 shows the xwFIP Starting Pitcher Leaderboard through June 2024 and includes starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched (IP).
Table 2: xwFIP Starting Pitcher Leaderboard through June 2024, including all pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched (IP)
Glasnow, Crochet, and Skenes take the xwFIP podium for starting pitchers so far in 2024. They are followed by Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal, Pablo Lopez, Corbin Burnes, Sonny Gray, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the top 10. Lopez, Nick Pivetta, and Reid Detmers are each in the top 30 among starting pitchers despite average or below average ERAs and FIPs. Expect them to have more run prevention success in the second half.
