Comparing Draft Pick Value in the NFL, NBA, and MLB
As the MLB off-season nears an end and the NFL season approaches its climax, I’ve read some really informative analyses calculating and discussing the relative value of draft picks in each sport.
In this post I’ll combine those analyses to compare draft value across the three largest US sports.
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The Trend in $/WAR for Free Agents
Ben Clemens provided a detailed breakdown of the amount teams paid per WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in free agency between 2018 and 2022. In this analysis, I will expand upon his findings by incorporating data from the 2023 and 2024 free agency periods to examine the broader trend.
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How to Stop The Celtics?
The Boston Celtics are off to an incredible start. They are 18-0 at home, with the best record in the NBA. According to the Simple Rating System, which takes into account both point differential and strength of schedule, the Celtics are the best basketball team since the 2016-17 Warriors, who had each of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green in their primes.
In fact, the Celtics don’t have any glaring weaknesses. In this analysis, I will look at the team on an individual player level, to find weaknesses that defenses can exploit to beat the Celtics.
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What’s The Better Value To a Team: Long-Term Contracts to Elite Hitters or Elite Pitchers?
2024’s free agency started with a bang as the Los Angeles Dodgers signed two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year deal, followed by signing Ohtani’s Japanese countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year deal.
As the remaining free agents reach deals over the coming weeks, I will take a look a what the relative value of signing an elite hitter to a long-term contract is versus the relative value of signing an elite starting pitcher to a long-term contract.
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